>> chris: i'm chris wallace and this is "fox news sunday." >> chris: i'm chris wallace and this is fox news sunday. the 2010 midterm elections. will the tea party save the g.o.p.? or sink it? we'll talk with republican strategist karl rove. who has come under fire inside his own party. criticizing the g.o.p.'s newest star, christine o'donnell. then, a game-changer in alaska. after losing in the g.o.p. primary, senator lisa murkowski mounts a write-in bid to keep her seat in washington. we'll get reaction from the republican nominee and tea party favorite, joe miller. plus, sarah palin and 2012. with her string of success in the primaries we'll ask our sunday panel if she's now the

front-runner for the g.o.p. presidential nomination. and with a primary season all but in the books, we'll look at what a wild week it was on the trail. all right now, on fox news. >> and hello, again from fox news in washington. this is not the program we were planning to bring you. christine o'donnell, the surprise winner of the republican senate primary in delaware, agreed to come here live in washington today, to take our questions. however, late friday night, her campaign cancelled. saying o'donnell was exhausted and had to return to delaware. saturday morning she called me and said this: i got triple-booked. i have been invited to go to church and then a picnic, i have to keep my priorities to delaware voters. so, we begin today, with someone who has been critical of o'donnell, master republican strategist karl rove. you have come under a lot of fire from conservatives this week for criticizing christine

o'donnell. let's watch. >> everything that he is saying is unfactual and a shame. because he's the same so-called political guru that predicted i wasn't going to win. and we won, and we won big. >> he had just gotten this mad at democrats during the bush administration, why, who knows how things would be different today? >> chris: add to that everyone from sarah palin to michelle malkin, karl and the argument seems to be you are part of the republican establishment and feel threatently by the tea party. >> well, this is actually about what is a winning strategy. there are serious questions that have been raised about miso'donnemis owher character, background, questions and statements, and we'll ignore those question and plan on people's dis satisfaction with barak obama and his problems and this policies and the health

care plan and, ignore the question an counted on people's animosity towards those obama actions in order to win the election, or you can take the perspective i do, which is people are not going to hear these arguments about president obama and his policies and what the democrats are doing in washington, as long as these questions are out there. frankly, here's the data. if you take a look at the primaries like those in nevada, kentucky, colorado, missouri, florida, where a republican strong conservative won the primary they immediately jumped to the lead in the polls, nevada sharron angle went 11 points ahead of harry reid after she won the primary and kentucky rand paul moved 25 points ahead. in alaska joe miller moved 8 points ahead, in delaware, the rasmussen poll says christine o'donnell remains 11 points behind chris coons, the democrat after the primary. and, we all want to have a -- i want a republican senate, i assume all the rest of these people do. the question is, what is the best strategy to get there?

and if you take the strategy, i'm going to ignore these questions, fine. go ahead and pursue the strategy. i frankly think a winning strategy requires coming to grips with these questions and explaining them in the most sympathetic way possible so people unblock their ears in delaware and begin hearing the broader message. >> chris: you talk about explaining in the most sympathetic way possible and christine o'donnell cancelled on us and another sunday show, her campaign citing exhaustion. she says it was overbooking. and now, as you probably know, a tape is floating around of her in 1999, saying she dabbled in the witchcraft and that will not help either of those, is it? >> look, if you say things like not paying your federal income tax and getting slapped with a lien is unfactual you are taking the perspective of, i'll ignore these and that is a legitimate strategy. it depends upon getting a you know -- depending on the wave of animosity towards president obama, in order the get elected.

i think she made a smart decision by not getting on the sunday shows this week and shouldn't have accepted in the first place, but, she needs to talk to the people of delaware. it is delaware voters, not conservatives around the country who will determine her, the outcome of the election, delaware voters will determine it. and there is as i say resistance. when she wins a stunning upset and incidentally i didn't predict she wouldn't win but won a stunning upset and this is the moment when she should be grabbing the imagination of the people of delaware and moving ahead in the polls like these other candidates around the country. roy blunt now has a 10 point lead, building upon the momentum that he got from winning the republican primary in missouri. in ohio, rob portman now hays a 20-point lead. >> chris: i want to move on and ask you quickly the new tape in which she said on the tv show, politically incorrect in 1999 she dabbled in witchcraft, how damaging is that? >> well, you know, southern delaware there's a lot of church

hon going people they'll want to know what was that about and again, she said it on television, and, when she went on the bill maher show and my view is she can't simply ignore it. she has to deal with it and explain it and put it in the most sympathetic light and move on and cannot say these are unfactual and not true and ignore them, go to my web site, and ignore them. i don't think people of delaware have or are accepting that as a reasonable explanation and until they do they'll be resistant to hearing the bigger, broader, more important message. >> i want to ask you about the0s political development, that is the fact that in alaska, lisa murkowski, the incumbent who lost to joe miller, our next guest, the tea party favorite now announced she'll run as a write-in candidate. couple of question, one, can lisa murkowski win, or, networks can she siphon enough votes away from miller that the democrat in the race, scott mcadams will

win. >> no, she cannot win, under the law you have to carefully spell the name exactly correct and everybody write down the name lisa murkowski and see if you got it right. she'll lose. the bigger and more important question is will she keep a republican from winning, who who have thought one of the most conservative states in the country ran the risk of having two liberal democrats representing them in the u.s. senate and she could do that as a spoil-sport. it is sad and sorry and she shouldn't do it and my hope is conservatives and republicans in elastic recognize the bigger issue, defeating president obama's agenda and going for the highly qualified republican nominee. a west point graduate, military veteran, a graduate of one of the nation's most press digits law schools, a -- prestigious law schools and, a practicing attorney and won it fair and square and lisa murkowski should not pursue this line that she is

pursuing. >> let's look at the bigger picture, in 7 states, the tea party candidate beat the establishment candidate in senate contests. what is happening in the g.o.p., a civil war, battle for the soul of the party? what is going on? >> no, there is no civil war and, let's be careful about tea party favorites. for example, everybody says marco roubio is the tea party favorite an icy him as a mainstream republican. the guy outside of the mainstream, charlie crist who endorsed president obama's stimulus bill and now is running as an independent and demonstrating his willingness to caucus with the democrats in the senate and he was out of the mainstream. take ken take rand paul -- kentucky, take rand paul, he was running against the democrat, and they had a strong difference in message and one man said i'll do something about deficits, debts, spending and health care and the other guy said, elect

me, i have a wonderful family and deserve to have the nomination. message trumps resume every day of the week and message with resume like in alaska is a powerful combination. >> chris: one of the big issues in the campaign over the next 44 days, is going to be the bush tax cuts and i want to ask you as a matter of pure politics how the republicans should play it. should they continue with the argument we're going to oppose all the tax cuts, all tax increases, we don't want any of the bush tax cuts to last, or how do they respond, when the democrats and president say, look, you republicans are holding the middle class tax cuts which we can pass today hostage because you want to look out for the rich fat-cats? >> look, chris this is a powerful argument for the republicans and i am mystified as i said in my column on thursday why president obama is raising this here at the last of the campaign. if you look at the latest rasmussen they say the republican party is trusted on the issue of taxes by a 52-36

margin. and why? because the republican line is simple. we should not be raising taxes, when the economy is fragile and we're in a recession and we shouldn't raise taxes on anybody and guess what? we have what is it? 32, 33, 34 democrats in the house who signed the letter or made public statements saying that? extend all the bush tax cuts? the president doesn't even have a bill. he certainly doesn't have a bill he can pass through either house of the congress, either the house or senate. why he's bringing this up, at the end of the campaign, it's a losing issue and he will not deliver on it and he'll look as a result, add to the narrative of incompetence and i don't get it. not a smart move on the white house's part. >> chris: karl, i don't have a white board i can put here, you beat me in the arms race, and all the polls i look at indicate when people are asked -- are you going after a white board. >> going fort why the white boa

man. >> chris: when people are asked, do you want to see tax cuts for the wealthy extend people by a majority oppose that prospect. in that -- >> that's not accurate. these are -- these are rasmussen numbers. do you want to end the bush tax cuts or extend them? extend, 56, end all,41. if a more nuanced view. do you want to extend all of the bush tax cuts, 51 or extend only those that aren't for wealthy. 44. it is still a winner, even if you put it in the way -- the way the democrats are, wean want to extend them for the we'll making less than $250,000 a year. but, again that is a losing argument because that's one way to word it. the other way is, do you believe we ought to be raising taxes, and in a recession or when the economy is fragile and that is a huge winner for the republicans and, as i say, is driven over 30 democrats, in the house to sign the letter or make a public

statement saying we're in favor of continuing all this bush tax cuts. >> chris: we have a couple minutes left and i want to get into another issue with you. when you look at the upheaval we're seeing in the republican party this year, what impact does that have looking forward to the presidential race which is going to start on november 3rd, of this year, the day after the election, does it shake it up? help a candidate like sarah palin who has been so successful with her endorsements this yoosh and what duties oes it mean for establishment candidate like mitt romney. >> that is several geological ages away, the tea party movement is active, fresh, and new and it's a little unsophisticated at times and a little incitizystininsistent an demanding, but when you look that races, it is somebody who had a message versus somebody who didn't and take alaska, for

example, lisa murkowski talked about how she was successful in bringing home pork to the state of alaska. and joe miller said, our countries in such bad straits we have to take -- we have to take our lumps along with everybody else and we should not be -- >> you are ducking my question. does it mean somebody like sarah palin moves up and, perhaps, is now the front-runner for the republican nomination? >> look, i think the vice presidential nominee of the party in 2008, if she runs in 2012, is a -- you know, one of the front-runners, i don't know if she is the front-runner and i repeat, look, there are several geological agents to go before the race shapes up, who in 2006 would say barack obama will be the nominee of the democratic party in 2008. people are narrowly focussed on 2010. and if sarah palin was to demonstrate her power and influen influence, where we started was, was delaware, she ought to go to delaware and campaign for her favorite, christine o'donnell,

she has tweeted on her behalf and mentioned her in a speech in des moines and if she wants to demonstrate her political power go to delaware and take the candidate whom she's backing and get her delays finish line by campaigning with her in delaware and sarah palin has enormous magnetism and a big following and let her employ it in the field on behalf -- front lines on behalf of the candidate that she cares so much about. >> chris: we'll have to leave it there. karl, thank you so much for coming in today, we promise we'll have you back as we get closer to the election and a promise i will never interview you again without my own white board! we won't have the unilateral disarmament ever again! up next we'll talk with joe miller, the tea party favorite, the big upset win, in alaska. about his new challenge. stay tuned. [ bubbles ] ooh...

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>> chris: one of the biggest tea party upsets this year was in alaska where joe miller defeated incumbent lisa murkowski. and, now, another twist. murkowski announced friday she'll run as a write-in candidate. for reaction we bring in the senate nominee, joe miller live from alaska. mr. miller, let's start with lisa murkowski's announcement that she is going to run the write-in campaign and here's what she said about you. >> i listened to alaskans who said, lisa, please, please give us that choice, because they told me, we cannot accept the extremist views of joe miller and we cannot -- [cheers and applause]. >> chris: your reaction to her decision, mr. miller? >> well, obviously, chris, she's not listening well to the alaska can voters because this primary

we had the largest turnout of republicans voters in the history of the state. and, they said resoundingly, 2,000 votes, as resoundingly as it gets, that the views we have expressed during the campaign are the views the future of the state needs to embrace. so, i think that really, she's just got a real disconnection from reality and thinking that the voters of alaska are extreme. >> chris: you only beat her by 1600 votes, in the republican primary and you only lead your democratic opponent by 6 points, scott mcadams in the latest poll. turnout is going to be a lot bigger in november than the primary. mr. miller isn't the race now wide open? >> well, the final number is 2,000 and still, yes, you are right. close vote but, sure, turnout will be important. but, again, the views we have expressed are transferring power back from the federal government

to the states, giving alaska an incredible opportunity to expand its economy especially at a time when our federal government is coming close to bankruptcy. so that is a broad-based appeal, not an extreme view, not an extreme view that he voters and -- in the republican primary here embrace but one that puts the state forward and has the capacity to put all of the states of the nation forward, it's an answer of hope but not one of despair of the past, the one leading us into insolvency as a nation. >> chris: let's pick up on your views and as we play the original clip, lisa murkowski says you are an extremist. unemployment benefits, you say they are unconstitutional. why are unemployment benefits unconstitutional and the census bureau came out with new figures that indicated 44 million americans are living in poverty and without unemployment benefits a lot more, millions more would be living in poverty. what would you do for them?

>> well i think the question is what is this role of the federal government and we have grown it into such a size we have, in absolute terms, $13.4 trillion in debt and if you look at the future unfunded obligation which a lot of those are the entitlement programs by some estimates $130 trillion, that is unsustainable and that is just the facts and i think americans recognize that those are the facts. the exciting thing is americans are looking for answers, alaf. here in alaska, 40% of our economy is somewhat derived from the federal government and if we continue to say things have to continue the way they are, the expansion of the government, unconstitutional in many ways is this wave of the future, it is a dead end road, particularly for the state because the impending bankruptcy... >> chris: mr. miller, if i may, i'm not sure you answered my question. why are unemployment benefits unconstitutional? and, at a time of a tough economy, recession, and now a kind of jobless recovery, what

will you do for the 44 million people who are living in poverty? >> i think what you need to look at is the context. we had an extension of unemployment benefits several weeks ago, which is beyond what we have had in the past in this country. what we have in this country is an entitlement mentality. an entitlement not just at the individual but the state level. that have if all goes wrong, if the -- it's the federal government's role to provide for the general welfare, to basically provide for the solvency, particularly of states and other entities, what, auto companies and banks and everything else, that be feels the government should be involved in bailing out and the constitution provides enumerated powers and i guess my challenge is to anybody that asks, show me the power and then look at the 10th amendment that says if it's not in the constitution it is a power that belongs to the state and people and we, the people need to stop being disingenuous

about what the constitution provides for. it does not provide for the all encompassing power we have seen exercised over the last several decades. it has gotten us in the to the bankrupt position. >> chris: as we discussed, with karl rove there does seem to be this sea change going on inside the republican party across the country. and if you are elected to the senate in november, how do you want to see your party, the g.o.p., do things differently in washington? >> well i think the first thing that needs to be done is again restricting the growth. and actually reversing the growth of government, and in the process, trying to transfer power back to the states and for alaska that is extraordinary and in alaska we have 50 billion barrels of oil reverse and we have extraordinary resources and other men ralinerals and have ao drive the state anyway that

federal funds are no longer required and there is a period of transition that takes place but we have an opportunity and it can drive i believe the whole economy of the u.s. just because the of the extraordinary resources there but we continue to have the heavy-handed government put down the state of alaska so it cannot get ahead economically we'll continue to have the dead-end road that has been what senator murkowski voted for during the 8 years she has been in the senate. it is not a message of home and has no answer for the future. >> chris: but i'm asking you more than just about alaska. you made this point clear. how would you like to see the g.o.p. handle things differently in washington on issues that affect the whole country? >> chris, that is the point. what is good for alaska is good for the country, transferring power from the federal government to the states provides opportunity to all states. not just alaska. we are laboratories of democracy and are a very diverse country and each states has the

opportunity to create solutions themselves. and particularly when we face the significant challenges that we have as a country. it's an opportunity for all of us as a nation to look back to what the founders envisioned and that was lots of different people and lots of different states making decisions that are best for the residents of those states. >> chris: are you saying for instance things like social security or medicare, those should be handled by the states for their own citizens and not be a national responsibility with a national program? >> chris i'm glad that you asked about that. we have got -- the same thing is with unemployment compensation, too. we have a contract between people in the government and the contract has been broken. social security for example, i'm 43 and paid into the system and you know what? the men has been stolen from me and i know me parents, on social security, they have got to continue to rieft. they depend on it and it is their primary source of income and i grew up lower middle class and my parents are challenged financially and our seniors have to have the trust and security

that those benefits will get, and even those getting ready to receive. obviously there's a contract and it has to be upheld and longer term we know the fiscal insolvency of the nation cannot justify that -- and we know more importantly that people like me, we will not have those funds in the future and we have to look at all options and i think the states are an option, i think making sure i can put my money where the government can't steal it is a very critical factor that has got to be considered. and, if we look at the system and say, don't need reform, forget, plug our heads in the sand the bankruptcy will go away that is entirely irresponsible and that is the approach and murkowski is not giving us solutions, but basically telling the american people, don't worry about it. everything will be okay. despite the fact that we have $13.4 trillion of debt. >> chris: mr. miller we have two minutes left and i want to get into former governor sarah palin of your state, who backed you and certainly helped you win with her backing. do you think that sarah palin is

qualified to be president and would you like to see her run? >> you know, i'm running the u.s. senate race now in alaska and that's what i'm focused on and i am asked about various candidates throughout the country during the race and that is not my role to comments on those candidacies, my role is to drive forward with the campaign to rescue the state from the grip of the federal government that is causing our children not to have opportunity and i moved here 16 years ago and wanted to ensure my children and their children have opportunities and are not driven down the road of bankruptcy, in such a way they lose the opportunity for the american dream. and that is my focus. that is my charge and i'm in the going to get distracted by questions about other candidates. >> chris: we can always try. joe miller, thank you so much. for coming in and talking with us. good luck in the campaign and we'll talk to you later. >> thank you, chris. >> chris: up next, after a wild week of primaries, our sunday panel discusses the state of the

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the small elite don >>... they call us wacky. they call us wing nuts. we call us "we the people." >> chris: christine o'donnell, the new republican senate nominee in delaware at the value voters conference in washington friday, firing up her supporters. it's time for our sunday group. bill kristol of the weekly standard. nina easton of "fortune" magazine. former state department official, liz cheney, and, juan williams, from national public radio. bill, let's starts with christine o'donnell. because the -- before her primary win on tuesday, your weekly standard had run not one but two stories about her.

this month, raising questions of her honesty and i think it is fair to say her mental stability and now we have her campaign cancelling her appearance here on fox news sunday, because of the exhaustion. the new tape of -- though a tape from 1999, newly released, about dabbling in witchcraft, how deep are your reservation about christine o'donnell. >> i'm a fellow we think nut and in that respect i would like her and agree with the votes she's cast in the senate and i would be inclined to vote for her but i think she'll have a tougher time winning than mike castle and, though mike castle is a more progressive person than i am, she does not have the record other tea party candidates have, joe miller, west point grad and an impressive person and christine o'donnell has been a bit of a flake but may be able to persuade the voters of delaware that that passed and now she's running and let's see

how she performs and karl rove stressed, i'm not sure she will not have a chance and karl rove stressed she's 11 points behind in the first rasmussen poll, against a democrat and george bush lost delaware by an average of 11 points in 2000, 2004 and mccain lost delaware, by 25 points in 2008 and it's not bad she's 11 points behind and she can say i did flaky things and i have grown up and i'm serious and if you want someone to vote against the obama agenda, i'm your person, she can have a competitive race, i think. >> i think castle would have been a stronger candidate and i would have voted for castle but i'm curious to see what happens in delaware now. >> chris: nina. >> a fallacy to write off christine o'donnell. if you look at a different state, massachusetts, at this point in the special election to fill ted kennedy's seat, six weeks out, scott brown by the way in a state that is 3-1 democrat to republican, scott brown was an empty suit who posed nude in the center fold of cosmopolitan and we saw what

happened there and delaware if you look at the polling, people -- majorities of people in delaware support repealing obama care. a majority of people support taxes, tax decreases over spending in order to create jobs, this is fertile territory and sharron angle is another example of somebody who everybody wrote that race off and harry reid got the seat sewn up after she won and, that race is -- in nevada is now tied. >> chris: liz, i'm fascinated. why has this race seized the republican party, this personality, christine o'donnell, to the degree it has and why has karl rove come under such fire? from other republicans, conservatives, for critical advising her. >> -- criticizing her. >> at the end of the day we like to say, is karl under attack and he's a god frieod friend of min there will not be a single voter

who will cast their vote because karl is under attack, for us in washington, to sit here and talk about, you know, who is up and who is down and is there a civil war in the party, i think this is the fundamental critically important phenomenon of the substance of the rise of conservatism across the country and is certainly happening in the republican party but not just in the republican party. you see a majority now of independents, and most of the recent polls say they are conservative and believe in small government and believe in low taxes and want fiscal responsibility. you look at the race in florida and you see in florida, a person in marco rubio who people said he will not be able to take on charlie crist, if he runs as an independent, rubio will be out and that is not happening. what is happening is voters across the country are saying we don't like the direction that the president is taking us in and we want a change and the tea party, i think is a very effective, very important voice at the center of that. >> chris: here's where i disagree with you. the tea party is not just speaking about the obama

administration and the democrats, they are also speaking about the direction the g.o.p. is taking. so i think simply to say this is a conservative wave misses the point it is also an anti-establishment wave against some of the currents establishment of the republican party. >> i don't think it misses the points. i think the tea parties are by no means saying we are republican. i think they are conservative. now it tends to be the case in my opinion, those conservative values are more effectively espoused by republicans but republicans who will espouse the status quo, republicans like mike castle, who will help president obama on issues like cap-and-trade will get voted out, just as well as the democrats will. >> chris: juan, i want to get back to this, at least 7 states we counted, tea party insurgent candidates beat the republican establishment candidates and i don't think you can ignore the fact a sea change is going on inside the republican party. >> i don't see how you can get away from the idea that there is i guess a civil war, whatever you want to call it going on

within the parties, for exactly what does the republican party represent. in fact so much money that is funding the tea party clearly is coming from outside the republican establishment, some coming from i guess the health care industry. from the oil industry, they are all angry at barack obama. but they've overdosed now in terms of the anger at obama, obama is a socialist and a muslim and this and that and not born in the country and stirred up things to the point where i think the establishment lost control and the tea party is now in control in terms of picking candidates and when i hear you guys talking about o'donnell, i mean, it's amazing. okay. o'donnell has trouble with taxes, her academic credentials, paying for school and her own mortgage and has no record and when you talk policy, obama's unamerican, she want to do away with the education department. she is someone who says her jobs plan for america is simply cut the capital gains fax and when the voters of dell way, by the

way, delaware has few republican voters, more independents than republicans and more democrats than independents, people are anti-establishment and one of the challenges, they want to give republicans a chance but when they look at that, they say, wait this is extreme and that's the problem across the country. >> o'donnell may be a bridge too far and delaware is not the best state to nominate someone who is a strong conservative and when the republican party was the kind of party, that was in charge and everything was quiet and, february 19th, 2009, rick santelli launched the tea party with the rant on cnbc, republicans are trailing the generic congressional ballot by 9 points and lost the national vote by 10 points, and, now they are ahead in the national congressional... by 7 points, 16-point swing and coincided with the huge amount of tea party activism with all of these upsets and, the congressional and senate races and republicans at the time, looking at the

standard forecast in the middle of '09 before the tea party got going, they might pick up a few house seats or senate seats and now looks like 50 or 60 house seats an 8 senate seats. >> chris: don't you think obama had a bit to do with that. >> not everything. and i think the sense that it is a new republican party and, citizen activism and not with all the due respect to the former leaders, bush, dole, mccain, republican party, that when you vote republican this time you are not simply voting for the old guys who messed things up in the republican congress and were kicked out in '06 or again much as i like them personally, people in the bush administration, you are voting for a new set of republicans and newly energized conservative and that is a big plus for republicans. >> it energized the republican base and the energy of a -- for the last year has come from the tea party. i don't have any doubt about that. i think that the fact it is a big benefit, look towards the fall, republicans are energized

more likely to turn out voters than democrats. but, if you start to actually say, wait, the election is not today. it is in several weeks and americans including independent swing voters who have been leaning republican until now are going to start to hear about these candidates, you know, joe miller talking about unemployment benefits unconstitutional? my god! you know... >> chris: let me throw out one of the facts in studying up, it turns out in all of the statewide races, primaries across the country 4 million more people voted for republicans than for democrats, the lowest turnout ever in all the primaries for democrats and highest turnout for republicans since 1970. so the republicans have got something going on. >> the other thing is, tea party candidates they could have taken it outside the republican party. we could have seen a third-party movement but instead they have kept it inside the party. and that is... befuddles the establishment leaders, and also created a level of energy inside the party that could have existed outside. >> and i think as long as juan

and others who are sort of part of the liberal elitist establishment... refer to people who have strongly-held conservative common sense values as lunatics the republicans will do extremely well. no doubt of that, in 2012 as well. >> chris: all right, take us to the commercial, guys. we have to take a break, but when we come back it has been a good week for sarah palin with more successful endorsements and a big speech in iowa. we'll ask our panel is she now the front-runner for the republican presidential nomination? now the frontrunner for the republican presidential nomination?

♪ >> the american people want to be ready for someone who is willing to shake it up and

willing to get back to time tested truths and help lead or country towards a more prosperous and safe future. and, if they happen to think that i was the one, if it were best for my family and for our country of course i would give it a shot. >> chris: sarah palin, opening the door of -- a bit wider for the possibility she may run for president in 2012 and we're back now with the panel. before we get to the question of sarah palin's presidential prospects, let's look at her record in this campaign. she endorsed christine o'donnell and she won and endorsed kelly ayotte for the senate race in new hampshire and she won and look at this: she has backed 36 candidates in contested primaries this year and many of them long shots, and 25 have won and 11 have lost and bill kristol. how much clout does sarah palin have in the republican party right now? >> more than any other single person. awfully impressive and she's backed losing candidates and some people who didn't have a chance, the maryland governor's race for example.

but, she's a real force to be reckoned with and that, that statement you played looked like someone more inclined to run than not, i would say. for president. >> chris: nina. >> i think on one hand defies the laws of political gravity in a lot of ways and you look at the kind of work you have to put into iowa, for example, all of the hard dogged work candidates have to do, i think she probably won't have to. 100% name i.d., popular. i think it is a mistake to think she owns the tea party movement. the thing about the tea party movement, it's not like barack obama and how he generated all of the enthusiasm and grassroots support and basically was a movement behind him, when he ran for president. i think in the case of the tea party, it is radically decentralized and doesn't glom onto one person. i think the recent polls i have saw shows that sarah palin was not overwhelmingly the lead

candidate for president. she's very popular but whether even the tea party will go enmasse to support her for president is, you know, hard to know. so i think you have to look at the tea party differently. it's not about none person. >> chris: we'll talk 2012 politics and i don't want you to say, well it is -- i don't want the rogue waffle about it being a geological period before we get to them. liz. so... i know, that is a cop-out. depending on how her candidates do in november and obviously if they don't do well it helps and if they do badly it hurts her, is she the front-runner for the republican nomination. >> we don't have a front-runner and the fact that she deserves a huge amount of credit, in addition to the things that bill and nina said, the fact that i think she's inspired women, republican women, all across the country, to throw their hat into the ring and has given voice to these conservative values that a majority of americans share. so she clearly is extremely

powerful and will be a force to be reckoned with, if she decides to run, but 2012 is for ever from now and a lot of what happens in 2012 will depend upon, do the republicans take control in november and, if we do take control what do we do with that control? do we actually produce and perform and keep or commitments to the voters and, it will depend on barack obama, after the leck -- >> let me do a quick follow-up with you. do you think she has begun to answer the substance question of whether she's up to be president. >> i do. i think the fact that she is playing in these critical debates, that matter so much to the american people, you know, goes a long way towards doing that. but i think the other point i was going to make is it matters what barack obama does, after 2010, too. if there is what i think will be, you know, a groundswell and shift of control of the house and possibly the senate, if the president listens to the american people, and begins to reverse course, then i think that makes the land escape of 2012 different. i think it is unlikely he'll do that, and stranger things have

happened. so there are a lot of unknowns at this point in terms of what will happen in 2012. >> chris: juan. >> when i look at the poll numbers, they indicate that pluralities of republicans feel sarah palin is unqualified to be president an doesn't have the substance and people find her interesting and attractive, but she quit as governor of alaska and defied political gravity as nina said by surmounting that, which i think is a big obstacle for people who wants someone who stays in the trenches and produces something politically and she has produced anti-obama rhetoric but i think the american people ultimately will say, you know, when look at the republican candidates right now, people of substance, political substance, like mitch daniels or haley barbie and tim pawlenty, you see they have more substance but not one is in position to challenge barack obama. barack obama now is -- >> i just want to get the

republican race, not into the democrats. let's put up a list we have put -- graphic we have, this is beyond palin of the conventional wisdom list of g.o.p. contenders. besides sarah palin, mitt romney, tim pawlenty, governor of minnesota, haley barbour, mississippi, jim demint, the conservative senator from south carolina who backed a lot of insurgents and tea party candidates and other people we could put up like mitch daniels. bill, to the degree that the republican primary voters have indicated that they are looking for something different in the republican party, how does it scramble the 2012 republican presidential race. >> it scrambles it and will not be the electing the next in line, or the senior person, bob dole or john mccain and sarah palin is this front-runner and it is a geological era away, and it is 17 months and she'll have a a slightly better chance, and

she's not an odds on favor but has better odds than anyone else and if i did win, place and show at this point i would say, sarah palin, mitch daniels and paul ryan, my tree effeifecta best. >> chris: you are saying a lot of the -- frankly all of the contentiousal names we had, pawlenty and mitt romney. you say they'll go for "none of the above". >> they are impressive politicians and have been good governors in the case of haley barbour and senators want to run, john thune and former governors like pawpawlenty, and mitt romney, and either someone who is governing successfully, like mitch daniels or paul ryan who will be the center of things, probably chairman of the house budget committee, he'll articulate the republicans and set forth the republican budget and articulating the republican national vision against president obama and, then sarah palin, who is impressive. but, i could -- it will shock you.

i could be wrong, one of those three will not be one of those people. >> chris: a totally genuine caveat. all right. nina. >> when you flashed up those pictures, what kept going through my mind was the problems each one of them has, and there are so many problems each of these candidates has, as well as potential, that i'm -- i say it's a geologic time and all of the stuff has to play out. >> chris: i know, but... the question i have is, bill answered it, he's basically saying, they -- the credentials and establishment and seniority in the party will not counts for very much. it will be much more about ideas. >> much more about ideas and much more about how we deal with it. look at the issues coming up down the rod. entitlement. entitlement reform. how we deal with the deficit, i agree paul ryan will be at the center of that. i'm not sure he'll be a presidential candidate but will be shaping that and how these candidates are able to articulate that, and ride that sevenths sense of arrange and, also, keep in mind one of the

reasons people are angry at the g.o.p. establishment is spending, spending and the bailouts. and that is i think going to continue to play out in the next... >> chris: liz. >> both things are true, it is forever from now. look at where we were november 2008. nobody -- >> we get that. enough of that. >> but i think it is true that -- i want to talk about that more... no! i think it is also true, facts and ideas and substance and policy will matter this time and maybe more so than in any previous republican presidential nomination. >> chris: who steps up. >> i think there are people bill mentioned, mitch daniels is a clear, very interesting potential front-runner, paul ryan is interesting and i think you'll have people who emerge after 2010 as real challengers, chris christie is terrific and it is impossible to say it will be the establishment guys. >> chris: 20 seconds. >> look, the fact is if you ask americans about president obama his numbers are going down but he's still in the mid 40s and

ask about democrats, they are not -- >> i don't want to talk about that. republican presidential... >> there are republican ratings that are so low and all the republicans you are mentioning have nothing. that is why people are so -- >> say good-bye, juan. >> adios, amigos. >> chris: thank you, panel. see you next week, check out the latest edition of panel plus where our group picks up with the discussion about the geological difference between now and the 2012 election on our web site, foxnewssunday.com and we promise to post the video before noon, eastern time. time for your comments: kevin o'brien sent this, about austan goolsbee: goolsbee. i disagree with almost everything he had to say but i find myself liking him. i love a great debate and i love to see people who can clearly articulate and support their decisions. chuck baker from north carolina liked our other guest. straightforward good old

fashioned common sense. please keep your comments coming to our blog, wallacewatch@foxnewssunday.com, up next, a wild week of politics, we go on the trail! [ male announcer ] let's throw down some style.

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>> and this was certainly one of the weeks on the trail. >> the people of delaware have spoken. >> i'm going to be supporting the nominee and we'll hope for the best, we like to win the seat. >> did you ask her, if the people were following her home to the headquarters and how she checked the bushes. nutty things she's been saying. >> a couple of weeks ago people thought we had no shot, but after all the republican cannibalism started i was two points ahead in the general

election. >> it's clear the tea party movement has the upper hand in the republican primary electorate. that's not the general election. >> i'm honored this race received so much national attention. i'm not counting on the national media to vote for me on november 2nd, i'm asking all of you to vote for me. >> you and i are peas in a pod. >> i came in the senate and we had 55 senators, a large majority in the house, republican in the white house. frankly, we didn't do what we said we were going to do. >> we are going to have to be looking and see the races develop where we think the best opportunity for pickups are and that's where we'll be spending the money. >> this is good timing, because we still have the six, seven weeks away before the mid terms and that is enough time, it allows some time for the party hierarchy to get it, understand they better buck up or stay in the truck. >> buck up and stay in the truck and we've still got 44 days until the election. that's it for today. have a great week and we'll